At the beginning of this year, it became known that Ukraine would not renew its contract with Russia for the transit of Russian gas to Europe. This contract, which expires on 31 December 2024, covers the transportation of 225 billion cubic metres of fuel over five years. Most of the Russian gas flowing to Europe was channelled through this pipeline. However, Kyiv has now made it clear that it has no intention of providing Moscow with transit capacity. While Europe was quick to express verbal support for this decision, Russia still anticipates the possibility of an extension to the agreement.
Economy
American LNG was a real salvation for Germany after the European Union decided to reduce its purchases of Russian gas to the maximum extent possible after the start of the conflict in Ukraine and to completely abandon it by 2027. Of all European countries, Germany, the main buyer of energy from Russia for many years, has seen the most significant reduction. If earlier Berlin’s dependence on Russian gas reached 55% of Germany’s total energy imports, a year ago the share of this gas in German imports had dropped to 20%. Therefore, American gas, which replaced Russian gas, turned out to be a real salvation for European economies – and especially for the German economy.
With the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022, the EU began to steadily reduce purchases of energy from Russia, particularly gas, intending to end gas imports from Russia completely by 2027. As at the end of June 2023, Russia’s share of EU gas imports had decreased from 38.5% to 12.9% compared to the same period in 2021.
The energy crisis and inflated gas prices in Europe have laid bare an obvious contradiction in the EU’s previous energy policies and their orientation on spot trade. Not long ago, long-term gas contracts – and not only those linked to Russia – were regarded by the Europeans as a form of bondage, which would not only increase the EU’s dependence on individual suppliers, …
Contradictions continue to tear apart Germany’s ruling coalition. There is no agreement on either domestic or foreign policy between Olaf Scholz’s party, the Greens, and the Free Democratic Party. The media is pouring oil on the fire, pointing out the cabinet’s wavering and even opportunism in the form of inappropriate budget expenditure and a €60-billion hole that has developed as a result.
After the damage to the Nord Stream pipelines and a significant reduction in supplies of gas from Russia, including a complete cessation of supplies via the Yamal–Europe pipeline, the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine’s territory has remained one of the last routes for supplying the EU with gas, although it has decreased to a third of its pre-war level…
Gas Infrastructure Europe reported in early October 2023 that 95.99% of its gas storage facilities were filled, surpassing last winter’s peak. What’s more, the result was achieved a month and a half earlier than in the 2022-23 winter season. However, it would be premature to celebrate the success of the European energy sector, since Russian gas supplies might not prove easy to replace in the long run.
According to assessments by experts, the situation in the EU’s energy market remains stable in the run-up to the winter of 2023-4. The continuing crisis in Ukraine and ongoing dependence on foreign energy suppliers including Russia and Qatar are of course having a negative effect.
Developments in the European economy and the prospect a “long war” in western Eurasia is putting the issue of medium-term instruments to ensure European energy security on the agenda. The main elements, based on opportunities to build the European energy mix without Russian pipeline gas, have partly worked, ensuring that EU countries got through the 2023-2023 winter period with relatively low social and economic costs.
Having set itself the ambitious task of giving up bloody pipeline gas from Russia and replacing it with “freedom LNG” from across the pond, the European Union is meeting its moral obligations. However, it could unwittingly drive itself into an infrastructural trap in which it has to choose between economic and environmental collapse.
In 2022 Europe experienced its steepest ever drop in gas demand of 55 billion cubic metres (bcm) or 13%, as the International Energy Agency reports: https://www.iea.org/commentaries/europe-s-energy-crisis-what-factors-drove-the-record-fall-in-natural-gas-demand-in-2022 . At the same time expenditure on gas imports almost tripled compared to the 2021 level, reaching €400 billion.